CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03d1897765b7e9380cf72b265fc93af22b45e02750db15b5c158b3ecec45f3ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof STATE, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked STATE | 51c | 449.16$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.43 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed STATE | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 70c | 369$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa | 63c | 253$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed STATE | 36c | 238.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 74c | 228.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Ursa | 49c | 202.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Ursa | 48c | 178$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Ursa | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked STATE | 26c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…bfe0backed STATE | 68c | 73.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed STATE | 32c | 50.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Ursa | 71c | 43.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 324 | 43.5%141 W · 183 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Ursa | 75c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Ursa | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Ursa | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Ursa | 73c | 28.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Ursa | 66c | 23.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.