CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9981619aa4d561785e572bf2912f421ab9a08c766b0e115d4c9299774877c266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof STATE, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked STATE | 46c | 6,065$2,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.77 | 8,058 | 50.3%4,055 W · 4,003 L | +171.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…251cbacked Ursa | 55c | 3,677$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.75 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Ursa | 55c | 2,800$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.83 | 758 | 57%432 W · 326 L | +49.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca40…83f6backed Ursa | 50c | 2,620$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.66 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked STATE | 30c | 1,463$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.03 | 325 | 36%117 W · 208 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed STATE | 40c | 796.94$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.05 | 6,522 | 42.9%2,798 W · 3,724 L | -80.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed STATE | 52c | 607.59$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.36 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Ursa | 46c | 542.03$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.85 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 60c | 451.52$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 56c | 341$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.36 | 5,400 | 31.5%1,699 W · 3,701 L | -393.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 54c | 324.07$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5,911 | 37.7%2,228 W · 3,683 L | +74.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked STATE | 50c | 266.39$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked STATE | 38c | 253.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed STATE | 48c | 228.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 328 | 43.3%142 W · 186 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…a3c1backed STATE | 45c | 220.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Ursa | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed STATE | 48c | 190.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Ursa | 51c | 182.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 660 | 54.1%357 W · 303 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked STATE | 37c | 163$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed STATE | 46c | 160.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 963 | 49.6%478 W · 485 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked STATE | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 734 | 51.1%375 W · 359 L | +28.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed STATE | 35c | 132$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1,305 | 26.4%345 W · 960 L | -89.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked STATE | 48c | 129.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked STATE | 48c | 129$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…70c5backed STATE | 48c | 101.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…9429backed Ursa | 33c | 97.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed STATE | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked STATE | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed STATE | 55c | 87.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Ursa | 70c | 85.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe303…401abacked STATE | 44c | 81.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…d613backed Ursa | 55c | 79.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa | 50c | 65.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 3,994 | 36.5%1,456 W · 2,538 L | -207.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Ursa | 50c | 51.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed STATE | 48c | 49.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4,132 | 50.9%2,104 W · 2,028 L | +72.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked STATE | 47c | 45.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…8319backed Ursa | 61c | 41.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked STATE | 43c | 39.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Ursa | 55c | 35.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed STATE | 44c | 27.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9a…17edbacked Ursa | 55c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Ursa | 55c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked STATE | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.