CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222d29ba21946ed2e5c721bc06447fb2a7a2f26150128bec4857e88de0b1de1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof STATE, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 80c | 1,723$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.93 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…ad94backed Ursa | 71c | 1,701$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.34 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Ursa | 71c | 1,376$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.05 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…f357backed Ursa | 72c | 916$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.3 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed STATE | 29c | 871$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.24 | 392 | 39.8%156 W · 236 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed STATE | 26c | 837.13$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.06 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked STATE | 29c | 763.72$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.52 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed STATE | 50c | 558.04$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.94 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed STATE | 24c | 538.39$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Ursa | 73c | 411.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…3760backed Ursa | 71c | 381.28$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed STATE | 24c | 323$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 247 | 47%116 W · 131 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…d733backed STATE | 15c | 282.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked STATE | 19c | 266$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked STATE | 21c | 237$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ursa | 49c | 216.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed STATE | 42c | 211.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed STATE | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…196bbacked STATE | 49c | 191.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed STATE | 24c | 169.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed STATE | 24c | 147.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3dac…654bbacked Ursa | 50c | 140.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed STATE | 15c | 137$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…b0debacked Ursa | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd6…ff34backed STATE | 16c | 127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Ursa | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed STATE | 28c | 119.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed STATE | 34c | 117.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…bafbbacked STATE | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed STATE | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked STATE | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Ursa | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…21c2backed Ursa | 71c | 98.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed STATE | 21c | 96.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed STATE | 17c | 95.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…2224backed Ursa | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Ursa | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed STATE | 27c | 89.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…07a7backed Ursa | 47c | 86.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked STATE | 43c | 82.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed STATE | 18c | 72.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed STATE | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 336 | 27.7%93 W · 243 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa | 64c | 65.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Ursa | 51c | 60.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Ursa | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed STATE | 39c | 53.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Ursa | 70c | 51.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked STATE | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563c…0dbfbacked STATE | 30c | 49.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked STATE | 26c | 47.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Ursa | 68c | 44.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed STATE | 27c | 43.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed STATE | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked Ursa | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Ursa | 51c | 30.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Ursa | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Ursa | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed STATE | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1675…3b56backed Ursa | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ursa | 74c | 24.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ursa | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Ursa | 78c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed Ursa | 73c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.