Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0408243ab293fad1522c7374d2f00f0b09e68d9026306ca8c18c0879ffe658f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 670.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 651.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 9c | 532.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 71c | 400.74$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.03 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 70c | 292.88$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 273.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 245.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed No | 71c | 215.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 201.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 79c | 167.47$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 20c | 156.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 10c | 155.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 52c | 144.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed Yes | 39c | 124.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 118.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 64c | 118.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 33c | 113$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 111.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 111.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…5d47backed Yes | 40c | 87.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 57.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 35c | 53.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 59c | 50.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 45.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 29c | 44.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 47c | 41.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 70c | 40.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 70c | 35.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 31c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 73c | 31.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed No | 67c | 26.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 78c | 23.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 56c | 21.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 62c | 16.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.