Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34015f7e0d597862dc343d62d97d7a4bcfefe58bdfd6e02b8f5eda93d6c424ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 54c | 307.71$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 64c | 293.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 283.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 46c | 262.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 240.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 208.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 60c | 202.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 184.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 70c | 145$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 74c | 134.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 27c | 132.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 131.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 124.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 112.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 36c | 99.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 97.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 95.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 35c | 79.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 20c | 77.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 59c | 74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…7b7ebacked Yes | 60c | 68.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 63.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 60c | 62.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked Yes | 23c | 53.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 60c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 54c | 51.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 77c | 50.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 32c | 48.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 46c | 43.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 41.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…d92cbacked No | 51c | 39.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…1613backed No | 36c | 38.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 53c | 38.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 66c | 38.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 53c | 37.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 41c | 37.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 73c | 36.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 41c | 35.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 35.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 47c | 31.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 31.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 30.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 30.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 39c | 30.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 62c | 29.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes | 61c | 25.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 41c | 24.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 24.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 51c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed Yes | 72c | 20.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a3…2e6dbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…cc5abacked Yes | 69c | 18.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 73c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked No | 61c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 65c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 60c | 17.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…39c4backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 79cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.