Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x882fc72d5723bebb69537b93dbfaedbef9e5022ae7f16b95287227feb213abcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 74c | 820$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.24 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 2c | 649.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,056.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 648.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 554.52$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 519.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 469.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.15 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 14c | 385.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.17 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 70c | 382.56$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 18c | 368.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.89 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 333.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Yes | 3c | 296.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +1,384.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 267.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 12c | 225.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…87d9backed No | 8c | 197.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 17c | 156.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.89 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 49c | 142.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 48c | 138.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…f194backed Yes | 66c | 137.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 12c | 134.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…98d0backed No | 65c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 9c | 119.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 67c | 118.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 14c | 112.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 111.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 111.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 24c | 102$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 99.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…757fbacked No | 79c | 77.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 18c | 77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 80c | 75.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f39…1617backed Yes | 23c | 68.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 19c | 66.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 72c | 58.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 23c | 56.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed No | 52c | 50.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 45c | 50.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 35c | 42.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes | 41c | 37.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 31c | 37.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 36.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 31c | 34.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 37c | 32.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…1ee6backed Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 68c | 18.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.