Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca52c9da7412b6c41787506c19868706b68923bed81944dac7b93a14e5f473f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 486.51$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 68c | 293.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 251.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 244.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 235.26$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 23c | 222.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 32c | 180.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 159.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 26c | 156.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 155.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 40c | 146.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 140.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 139.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 27c | 132.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 26c | 128.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 115.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 113.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 112.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 43c | 105.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 29c | 100.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 96.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 81.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 70.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 69.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 73c | 66.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 60.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 55c | 53.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 47.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 46.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 40.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…52b9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 71c | 38.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 45c | 35.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 62c | 33.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 74c | 27.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 72c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 69c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.