World Politics · resolved market
Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040e39c748c9670086010468156ee6f981e88961bcfb9be5a0f62218be89500f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 12c | 2,606$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304.34 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,342$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…5d65backed No | 9c | 1,163$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…9ff2backed Yes | 1c | 1,063$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 6c | 854.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.7 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 16c | 623.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…cec7backed Yes | 31c | 550$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…694dbacked Yes | 47c | 515.7$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…047abacked Yes | 80c | 515.7$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 347.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.14 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…1917backed Yes | 4c | 343.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 35c | 100.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3581…1ef2backed Yes | 71c | 70.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…5f6dbacked Yes | 79c | 59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 41c | 54.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 45c | 36.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa0…522fbacked No | 77c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…fb70backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…4ec3backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?this page
- Will FAST win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?Yes won
- Will SNDP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?No won
- Will SUP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?No won
- Will TPRRP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.