Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x042651415057cb73431167411d1a6b74ace765ceae1ac0addce4e75859f5b7ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 219$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 161.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 125.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 119.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 106.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 100.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 89.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 71.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 30c | 64.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 54.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 62c | 53.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 50.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 20c | 49.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 80c | 47.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 24c | 41.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 31.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 65c | 27.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 71c | 24.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…7ca4backed Yes | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 73c | 16.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.