Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $455?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04328e75ad3c5473c7b39633738f5d3c4dae468572b90047f9159878477f6f27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,047$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.61 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 80c | 714.28$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.86 | 1,337 | 47.2%631 W · 706 L | +44.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…668cbacked Yes | 44c | 474.21$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 45c | 291.87$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.83 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 176.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…3470backed Yes | 75c | 133.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 67c | 126$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 92.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $455?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $395?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $400?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $420?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $425?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $430?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $435?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $440?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 1 above $450?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.