Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x043f8816f6c49926993e82ea729897c0314ccf0c0e3297f9351ac8df46a0333e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 35c | 882.35$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.85 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 35c | 841.15$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 22c | 518.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 471 | 58.8%277 W · 194 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 13c | 421.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…b767backed No | 71c | 409.28$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 265.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 233.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 26c | 203.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 10c | 186.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 213 | 31.5%67 W · 146 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 173.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 171.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 135.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 47c | 131.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…c9c4backed Yes | 44c | 128.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed No | 76c | 127.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 117.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 33c | 109.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 22c | 105.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 96.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 26c | 87.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 36c | 87.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 44c | 68.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 27c | 66.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 66.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 66.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 65.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…ac39backed Yes | 70c | 59.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked Yes | 24c | 51.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 50.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 27c | 49.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 489 | 32.7%160 W · 329 L | +22.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 47.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 30c | 47.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…8292backed No | 52c | 44.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 79c | 44.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 42.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 631 | 21.9%138 W · 493 L | -33.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…93a3backed No | 52c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…16b6backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 80c | 29.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 75c | 28.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…cba6backed Yes | 60c | 28.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 45c | 24.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…f023backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…42febacked No | 76c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.