MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0452df190b1eae9cda8519b107e9d70594b3b546a6b5dae843ac59fb864f5849
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 48c | 1,714$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.87 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 858.86$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.94 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 595.53$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.91 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 64c | 587.29$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 578$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.24 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 75c | 575.89$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.53 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 21c | 290.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.66 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 21c | 246.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.68 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 43c | 88.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 72.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 47.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Under | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Under | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 47c | 35.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Under | 44c | 30.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 40c | 30.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 46c | 29.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 162 | 58%94 W · 68 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 20.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 63c | 19.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.