Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x046ca22b6a25671862ce206d2826b24904f290506c46db3ffa66d82146a8e7f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 10,966$8,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 13c | 5,999$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.87 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 63c | 4,307$2,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.15 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 39c | 3,375$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.37 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Over | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Over | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 717.04$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…5d74backed Over | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 63c | 438.4$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Under | 74c | 431$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 26c | 384.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 30c | 220$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 61c | 212.43$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Over | 37c | 179.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…bfb4backed Over | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…6121backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 37c | 127.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 37c | 127.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Under | 64c | 100.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 39c | 92.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 64c | 88.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 65c | 77.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Over | 39c | 49.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 70c | 31.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 73c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 65c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 3.5this page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5)Borussia Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.