Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x990c9c68e9ae69da1ea4f966a7d3d1173447127cb5c594615bf200dbba0e00d3

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,474 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	10,050$5,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,634.08	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	46c	7,325$3,373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,373.06	751	42.5%319 W · 432 L	-26.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Over	35c	5,000$1,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,250	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over	62c	2,129$1,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$809.05	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+82.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	39c	2,125$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.97	782	48.8%382 W · 400 L	-28.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over	47c	1,967$933 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,034.03	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Over	56c	1,804$1,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Over	61c	1,721$1,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$679.49	107	28%30 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	40c	1,608$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.21	141	57.4%81 W · 60 L	+8.4wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Over	60c	1,401$839 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$562.37	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Over	61c	700$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273	100	57%57 W · 43 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	47c	617.45$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.45	187	59.4%111 W · 76 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Over	60c	600$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	52c	561.3$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.49	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under	65c	560$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Over	60c	527.12$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.35	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	-6.1wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9048…07f2backed Over	62c	496.82$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.79	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	61cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d94…40e6backed Over	34c	440$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.4	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	33c	432.46$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289.75	131	42%55 W · 76 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x476b…30a0backed Over	59c	375.41$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.92	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over	60c	364.39$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.39	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x250e…b699backed Over	42c	360$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78a4…ea47backed Over	60c	328.82$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.53	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under	66c	318.61$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.11	112	52.7%59 W · 53 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc270…1379backed Over	59c	305.08$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.08	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	35cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	38c	300$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x216b…d5e6backed Over	62c	293.13$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.39	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3b…5a53backed Over	60c	225.5$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.2	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	333	40.8%136 W · 197 L	-14.3wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2109…55bfbacked Over	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	28	71.4%20 W · 8 L	+4.9wins	+0.18per pick	54cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Over	58c	200$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d1…84a2backed Over	59c	200$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	60cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	59c	169.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.49	137	54%74 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Over	59c	169.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.49	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	50cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over	47c	169.2$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.2	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+4.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe220…f862backed Over	62c	160$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.8	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6125…fb3abacked Over	62c	151.82$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.69	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Over	61c	150$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.5	84	59.5%50 W · 34 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x024e…2e48backed Over	39c	140$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.2	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2599…61cdbacked Over	59c	139.99$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.4	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.22per pick	59cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0843…97f5backed Over	61c	129.51$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.51	22	81.8%18 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.12per pick	70cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Under	38c	123.13$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.79	150	24%36 W · 114 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Over	55c	110.86$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.07	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+5.0wins	+0.16per pick	45cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Over	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Under	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	93	50.5%47 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe903…f8e1backed Over	44c	79.27$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.39	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87f5…86a8backed Under	46c	69.57$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Over	62c	65$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.7	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca39…9d5dbacked Over	62c	62.23$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.65	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e88…7d0cbacked Over	50c	58.16$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.08	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc994…f4ebbacked Over	59c	51.08$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.94	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Over	59c	50.85$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.85	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over	59c	50.85$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.85	345	47.5%164 W · 181 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	54c	48.37$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.42	346	55.5%192 W · 154 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Under	62c	43.55$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Under	69c	43.48$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-7.4wins	-0.13per pick	65cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2886…0e62backed Under	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Over	40c	40.67$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Over	62c	40.32$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.32	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over	60c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	-5.1wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd560…ee17backed Over	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725a…c06cbacked Over	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Over	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	94	68.1%64 W · 30 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	71cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb1d…a925backed Over	49c	32.65$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.65	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+3.5wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1449…df20backed Over	45c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	53c	29.86$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	101	50.5%51 W · 50 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over	62c	29.46$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.13	42	69%29 W · 13 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	60cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d1e…327abacked Over	55c	29.09$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.09	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0899…2bc6backed Under	69c	28.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over	44c	27.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.27	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	78	67.9%53 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03dc…132abacked Over	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+3.2wins	+0.19per pick	46cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x423d…c621backed Over	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Over	57c	21.11$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.18	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6438…fadbbacked Over	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Over	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	10	70%7 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	72cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Over	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab05…4386backed Over	59c	17.58$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5this page
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5)Borussia Dortmund won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event