Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688c95d2178190dad493545bcf7ac0d8323e8e35309157210e3d1bd6b89257ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 42c | 4,711$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 37c | 1,912$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.38 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 63c | 1,446$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.33 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 66c | 1,145$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.53 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 46c | 1,138$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +80%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 685.21$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 38c | 667$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 65c | 584.13$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.13 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 53c | 570.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.73 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd84c…a36dbacked No | 58c | 508.33$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 34c | 499.71$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 65c | 463.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.91 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 35c | 462.34$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 67c | 446.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 35c | 443.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 66c | 426.16$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 65c | 419.15$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 66c | 399.18$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 34c | 345.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 63c | 319.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 35c | 290.87$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…db57backed Yes | 68c | 248.2$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 32c | 239.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 65c | 215.46$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 64c | 187.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1975backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Yes | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…8edcbacked Yes | 58c | 145.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 36c | 128.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 63c | 124.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed90…429ebacked Yes | 66c | 121.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…4f03backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…4e19backed Yes | 64c | 93.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 65c | 92.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 60c | 86.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c89…1c52backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed Yes | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…5a5ebacked Yes | 64c | 59.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 36c | 57.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x760d…deaabacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…5cb2backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…2ee8backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 50c | 32.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…dc16backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aad…72b7backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…a0dbbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…771fbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…66c8backed Yes | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…98d4backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…6adcbacked Yes | 65c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…5bfebacked Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…05bcbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5)Borussia Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.