Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x046e67abc0fc03613e165db15a3ef2d83cd4891635c4e5356b0a189a22f6e0fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Augsburgof SV Werder Bremen, FC Augsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed SV Werder Bremen | 7c | 323.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed SV Werder Bremen | 27c | 299.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed FC Augsburg | 74c | 203.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked FC Augsburg | 72c | 156.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked SV Werder Bremen | 28c | 156.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…6eaabacked SV Werder Bremen | 28c | 121.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Augsburg | 73c | 81.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked FC Augsburg | 75c | 78.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SV Werder Bremen | 19c | 58.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed SV Werder Bremen | 25c | 57.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed SV Werder Bremen | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcc…7a86backed SV Werder Bremen | 27c | 37.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked FC Augsburg | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed FC Augsburg | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked FC Augsburg | 73c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed FC Augsburg | 73c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked FC Augsburg | 73c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.