Bundesliga · resolved market

SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac62cb1328610d6654641ff320205b0cd69683ad405fd09bc7aba63ad50242d1

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,407 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x83d2…d196backed Over	63c	60,678$38,099 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,578.98	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under	37c	8,000$2,960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,960	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	39c	7,223$2,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,824.61	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	37c	6,271$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,350	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	39c	6,169$2,391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,390.79	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under	37c	6,000$2,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,220	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-4.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under	37c	3,500$1,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,295	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under	37c	3,000$1,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	37c	2,700$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999	157	42%66 W · 91 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Under	38c	2,630$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.4	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over	63c	2,629$1,656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$972.79	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over	59c	2,056$1,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$847.33	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under	37c	2,000$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	38c	1,979$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.3	698	51.9%362 W · 336 L	+22.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	37c	1,583$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$589.83	298	55.4%165 W · 133 L	+11.2wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under	37c	1,300$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under	37c	1,300$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	38c	1,116$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.89	287	55.1%158 W · 129 L	+12.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under	37c	1,000$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	37c	946$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.02	94	59.6%56 W · 38 L	+6.2wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under	37c	900$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked Under	36c	864.33$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.16	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under	37c	854.25$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.07	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under	37c	800$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under	37c	800$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under	37c	800$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc29…383bbacked Under	47c	770$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.9	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.6wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	39c	579.7$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.85	640	43.9%281 W · 359 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under	37c	500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	89	50.6%45 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under	37c	500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	89	49.4%44 W · 45 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under	37c	500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	70	50%35 W · 35 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under	37c	500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	38c	494.74$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.53	420	46.4%195 W · 225 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Under	41c	479.77$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.94	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under	37c	460$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.2	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under	37c	400$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under	37c	300$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under	37c	300$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under	37c	300$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over	49c	295.77$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.03	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under	37c	287.04$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.52	271	38.4%104 W · 167 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	36c	286.66$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.23	339	38.1%129 W · 210 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over	64c	234.38$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.38	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb026…9c7bbacked Under	50c	230$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	37c	210$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.6	1,083	50.8%550 W · 533 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Under	37c	200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	47c	195.51$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.8	531	40.7%216 W · 315 L	-13.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	38c	160.15$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	37c	150$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	132	56.1%74 W · 58 L	+6.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Over	63c	136$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.32	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	41c	124.67$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.11	481	41.8%201 W · 280 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under	21c	119.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+5.2wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under	38c	100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under	40c	99.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.86	624	52.6%328 W · 296 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d0…ba9bbacked Over	54c	94.44$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.44	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	63c	85$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.45	137	54%74 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under	41c	73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	59c	73$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.93	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+7.0wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+31%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc0eb…6d57backed Under	16c	68.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	31cpaid	+52.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Over	79c	66.5$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.13	59	64.4%38 W · 21 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	38c	65.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.68	330	47.3%156 W · 174 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under	37c	65.25$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.01	147	55.8%82 W · 65 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	60c	65$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.15	164	64%105 W · 59 L	+28.5wins	+0.17per pick	47cpaid	+49.2%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0xfece…ef64backed Under	41c	64.32$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.17	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	77c	63.01$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.62	109	56%61 W · 48 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3d…3681backed Over	80c	62.5$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	78cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9132…6607backed Under	22c	55.13$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under	38c	53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33b3…e861backed Under	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaad3…d0d2backed Under	52c	51.92$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	55c	51$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.05	207	53.6%111 W · 96 L	+22.3wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under	37c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	37c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	228	54.8%125 W · 103 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	146	42.5%62 W · 84 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	37c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	154	54.5%84 W · 70 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5465…ba43backed Over	63c	39.68$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.68	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	70cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	64c	37.5$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	120	69.2%83 W · 37 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over	74c	37$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.62	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3aa7…303dbacked Under	43c	35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	40	70%28 W · 12 L	+4.0wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Over	64c	31.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	205	40%82 W · 123 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over	64c	31.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	54	68.5%37 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over	64c	31.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Over	63c	19.05$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+30%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc7d…ee5abacked Over	74c	19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.94	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed Over	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	66cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5this page
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)FC Augsburg won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event