Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc040f1bc723ad6101fe07562521c286c49e1c38a04dc9ec34fc563df74783aa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 37c | 1,559$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.41 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 1,117$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 36c | 468.52$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.36 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Yes | 64c | 422.83$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 36c | 283.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 28c | 277$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 64c | 262.72$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 62c | 222.07$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 36c | 157.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Yes | 63c | 142.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 36c | 124.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 35c | 109.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 38c | 102.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…db9cbacked Yes | 55c | 91.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…c53fbacked No | 28c | 82.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed No | 36c | 62.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed No | 36c | 52.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…4a6fbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 64c | 36.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836b…e66cbacked Yes | 77c | 32.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 63c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Yes | 62c | 31.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…eb5cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 71c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 64c | 28.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297d…8941backed Yes | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 58c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f81…1d7fbacked Yes | 62c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…e173backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.