Bundesliga · resolved market

SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4e70a3fe5d9dab329d640df7103c39e60479e909cd2bbfa07b8d0b268b54ec

Rebuilt 47 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $89,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,654 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed Under	59c	50,574$29,833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,832.78	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Over	40c	18,559$7,424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,135.36	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Over	41c	8,000$3,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,720	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	61c	6,409$3,889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,889.15	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Over	41c	6,000$2,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,540	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-4.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Over	41c	3,500$1,435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,065	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over	43c	3,488$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,988.37	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under	57c	3,068$1,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,748.89	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Over	41c	3,000$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,770	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Over	41c	2,000$820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,180	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	41c	2,000$820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,180	698	51.9%362 W · 336 L	+22.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	60c	1,771$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055.16	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	43c	1,533$653 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$880.07	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over	32c	1,500$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	+6.3wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	44c	1,411$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.84	157	42%66 W · 91 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Over	41c	1,300$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$767	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Over	41c	1,300$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$767	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Over	41c	1,000$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590	81	58%47 W · 34 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Over	41c	1,000$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over	41c	900$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$531	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Over	41c	840$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.6	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Over	41c	800$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Over	41c	800$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over	41c	800$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over	38c	731.87$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.76	115	40.9%47 W · 68 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Over	41c	728.14$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.6	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Over	41c	708$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417.72	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97f1…0f6bbacked Over	40c	600$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Under	44c	600$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under	61c	600$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363	59	74.6%44 W · 15 L	+6.1wins	+0.10per pick	64cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Over	41c	500$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295	89	50.6%45 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over	41c	500$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295	89	49.4%44 W · 45 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Over	41c	500$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295	70	50%35 W · 35 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over	41c	500$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb026…9c7bbacked Under	56c	500$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over	41c	460$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.4	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	57c	422.54$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.75	640	43.9%281 W · 359 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Over	41c	400$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Over	40c	368.5$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.1	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	48cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over	41c	300$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Over	41c	300$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Over	41c	300$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over	41c	300$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	60c	280$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.01	287	55.1%158 W · 129 L	+12.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	41c	231.52$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.51	420	46.4%195 W · 225 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Over	41c	200$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under	60c	197$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.2	220	47.3%104 W · 116 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Under	6c	182.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	41c	156.99$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	330	47.3%156 W · 174 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	41c	150$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.5	132	56.1%74 W · 58 L	+6.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	41c	130.34$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.94	298	55.4%165 W · 133 L	+11.2wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under	61c	103.08$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.88	624	52.6%328 W · 296 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over	39c	101.69$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.29	147	55.8%82 W · 65 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	84	58.3%49 W · 35 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	55c	97.92$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.87	481	41.8%201 W · 280 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	38c	83.37$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.83	109	56%61 W · 48 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Under	60c	83.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under	59c	80.2$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.32	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	46c	76.04$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.84	531	40.7%216 W · 315 L	-13.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8f…4449backed Under	60c	73.33$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1744…b131backed Under	55c	73.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.36per pick	50cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	51c	71.53$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.11	1,305	40.8%532 W · 773 L	-42.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under	60c	65.1$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	51c	51$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.99	207	53.6%111 W · 96 L	+22.3wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	41c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.5	228	54.8%125 W · 103 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	73c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.58	117	44.4%52 W · 65 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	68c	50$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	146	42.5%62 W · 84 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	41c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.5	154	54.5%84 W · 70 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Under	60c	49.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	32c	46.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.84	124	60.5%75 W · 49 L	+19.9wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under	62c	46.24$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.67	150	48%72 W · 78 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf474…2775backed Under	56c	44.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.33per pick	61cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	62c	43.32$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	264	45.5%120 W · 144 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Under	47c	37.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89d4…dcfcbacked Under	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Under	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	39c	32.5$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.79	395	58.7%232 W · 163 L	+27.4wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over	40c	31.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.13	202	51%103 W · 99 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Over	43c	26.95$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.36	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under	59c	23.15$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	271	38.4%104 W · 167 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Under	61c	17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5this page
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)FC Augsburg won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event