Will Mali win on 2025-12-26?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0471cc7425e1b75c5de1817804a949b13773d56cbfcbcc277ad35ab7e99e7ded

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $151,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $164,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,764 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes	11c	14,962$1,637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,636.56	293	43%126 W · 167 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes	12c	12,141$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	98	38.8%38 W · 60 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes	11c	6,000$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$659.99	96	36.5%35 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	13c	5,030$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.48	300	31%93 W · 207 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed Yes	10c	4,243$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.33	147	32%47 W · 100 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafb4…2268backed Yes	3c	3,823$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Yes	8c	3,809$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.42	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-6.2wins	-0.12per pick	31cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	9c	3,239$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.72	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes	11c	2,575$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.23	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes	11c	1,715$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.72	203	22.7%46 W · 157 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff6…51e5backed Yes	12c	1,667$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	71	28.2%20 W · 51 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+101.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	11c	1,500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	224	21%47 W · 177 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d11…6096backed Yes	11c	1,440$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes	6c	1,326$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.15	168	33.9%57 W · 111 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	12c	1,200$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+4.8wins	+0.15per pick	46cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes	6c	1,172$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.67	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4421…80d2backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes	11c	857.71$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	126	44.4%56 W · 70 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Yes	12c	835.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	146	20.5%30 W · 116 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes	12c	690$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.8	96	43.8%42 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e18…500fbacked Yes	2c	681.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes	8c	613.75$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.1	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes	11c	598.46$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.78	236	22%52 W · 184 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes	12c	515.58$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.87	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	489.75$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	341	2.9%10 W · 331 L	-132.4wins	-0.39per pick	42cpaid	-94%equal weight	10-0.36 edge/pick
0x38f8…95c0backed Yes	11c	450$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	88	38.6%34 W · 54 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b6…5b63backed Yes	11c	438.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	104	19.2%20 W · 84 L	-10.2wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2ac…d477backed Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed Yes	5c	403.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	70	32.9%23 W · 47 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf49d…300cbacked Yes	8c	392.79$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.98	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7003…684bbacked Yes	8c	381.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dd2…b035backed Yes	5c	378.24$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	10c	367.26$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.85	346	30.1%104 W · 242 L	-21.8wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes	3c	362$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed Yes	12c	346.75$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	48	31.3%15 W · 33 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Yes	5c	336.57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	70	34.3%24 W · 46 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Yes	7c	319.19$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.74	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes	7c	304.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	20cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes	10c	285.45$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.32	145	37.2%54 W · 91 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e69…bebebacked Yes	16c	250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb848…275cbacked Yes	8c	230$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+140.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce0…e809backed Yes	6c	218$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Yes	7c	213.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	113	31%35 W · 78 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa922…f461backed Yes	13c	213.23$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf59b…6ea1backed Yes	11c	210$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	30cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x658f…f68bbacked Yes	10c	209.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e1…c744backed Yes	13c	199.88$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6dcf…bcdfbacked Yes	11c	185.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a6…37b9backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	114	14.9%17 W · 97 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd6a…9234backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-74.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34ad…040abacked Yes	11c	175.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Yes	12c	175$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d02…aa1ebacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeca5…fe8bbacked Yes	13c	155.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	34.5%30 W · 57 L	-8.6wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-32%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes	8c	150.92$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	98	45.9%45 W · 53 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes	12c	149.76$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f75…c33ebacked Yes	10c	145.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec6…e838backed Yes	12c	114.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-25%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes	11c	114$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+18.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes	10c	111.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	760	48.7%370 W · 390 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-6.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c89…0ebabacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Mali win on 2025-12-26?this page
Will Morocco vs. Mali end in a draw?Yes won
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Mali win on 2025-12-26?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event