Asian League · resolved market
Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04840079be8a33578fdd9aa00de8174dbbb25f2a4087d4913a9f9dfd912a04e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 74c | 2,017$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.77 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 721.1$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.91 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 418.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 269.27$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 14c | 107.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 26c | 100.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 25c | 80.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 74.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 74.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 17c | 71.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 66c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.