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World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "NATO" during Macron presser today?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,822 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a14…d748backed No9c1,050$90 inWon+$959.849053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No17c999.99$170 inWon+$829.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No28c795.82$219 inWon+$576.5516744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No15c600$88 inWon+$511.553444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No15c286.66$43 inWon+$243.662035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+261.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes65c220$143 inLost-$1432733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc8…1bfebacked No24c57.9$14 inWon+$43.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+88.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes53c27.14$14 inLost-$14.4836742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes76c20$15 inLost-$15.22846.4%13 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes64c20$13 inLost-$12.84327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+189.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.