TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Gaza" during Macron presser today?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0532…0b95backed Yes29c220$63 inLost-$63.21947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No70c205$144 inWon+$61.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes30c200$60 inLost-$602035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+261.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No71c140$99 inWon+$40.63625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No73c121$88 inWon+$33.0416744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes26c61$16 inLost-$16.064228.6%12 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+74.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No71c43.45$31 inWon+$12.636742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No71c43.45$31 inWon+$12.49345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Yes29c40$12 inLost-$11.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No80c30$24 inWon+$6.11513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-82.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed No75c20$15 inWon+$51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.