TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Germany" during Macron presser today?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,808 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x134a…9e42backed Yes63c1,271$797 inLost-$796.655139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No39c1,000$387 inWon+$613.323444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No36c592.66$215 inWon+$377.9820614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No44c516.65$227 inWon+$289.859053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No34c251.02$85 inWon+$165.672157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes65c250$162 inLost-$162.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes66c227.27$150 inLost-$150850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No39c221.99$87 inWon+$135.4116744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No35c200$70 inWon+$1306533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb250…078cbacked Yes65c131.89$86 inLost-$85.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes62c100$62 inLost-$61.755754.4%31 W · 26 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x279c…a80cbacked No51c83$42 inWon+$40.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes65c76.62$50 inLost-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No36c67.14$24 inWon+$43.049345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1b9…801fbacked Yes49c61$30 inLost-$29.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d6…4c20backed Yes49c55$27 inLost-$26.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9447…d44cbacked Yes61c49.18$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee42…a1d6backed No51c44$22 inWon+$21.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb869…c4c6backed No36c42$15 inWon+$26.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f6…9e08backed Yes62c40$25 inLost-$24.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes29c40$12 inLost-$11.6911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes62c30$19 inLost-$18.62548%12 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x530f…f8f3backed Yes49c21$10 inLost-$10.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes61c20$12 inLost-$12.236742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.