TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "US" or "United States" 7+ times during Macron presser today?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,984 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x502b…a1d5backed No1c4,500$45 inLost-$454847.9%23 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost-$10340%0 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No42c400$166 inLost-$166.323444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No35c300$105 inLost-$10518036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes66c231.98$152 inWon+$801464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0532…0b95backed Yes70c205$144 inWon+$61.11947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes55c199$109 inWon+$89.5516744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No34c100$34 inLost-$341136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dbc…421dbacked No30c90$27 inLost-$27450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0afe…7408backed No32c83$27 inLost-$26.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No29c80$23 inLost-$23.22846.4%13 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd151…86a2backed Yes68c64$44 inWon+$20.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc8…1bfebacked Yes65c61$40 inWon+$21.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+88.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes59c60$35 inWon+$24.61250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No36c55.55$20 inLost-$2020614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No35c50$17 inLost-$17.39345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes66c40$26 inWon+$13.636742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes71c30$21 inWon+$8.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes70c25$18 inWon+$7.53145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf07…65efbacked Yes68c19$13 inWon+$6.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes71c15$11 inWon+$4.352548%12 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.