TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Macron presser today?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,052 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes42c691.18$290 inLost-$290.32157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No58c550$316 inWon+$233.743444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d80…219abacked No54c330.73$179 inWon+$151.81450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes46c300$138 inLost-$1384847.9%23 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No55c242$133 inWon+$109.19345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No57c237.27$136 inWon+$101.672846.4%13 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes45c222$100 inLost-$99.916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No58c200$116 inWon+$84.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes44c200$88 inLost-$881250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes46c163.99$76 inLost-$75.62035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+261.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0516…dbc2backed No57c40.56$23 inWon+$17.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes45c40$18 inLost-$17.836742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes47c40$19 inLost-$18.83145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No53c40$21 inWon+$18.838023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost-$204740.4%19 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes43c35$15 inLost-$15.051241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes49c29.06$14 inLost-$14.241546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.