Tennis · resolved market
Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emiliana Arango
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04b71610794884ed1fe77d78e8dc14a7610c36ffc0c7b5514ba7e67a1df49bc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iga Swiatekof Iga Swiatek, Emiliana Arango
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Emiliana Arango | 6c | 22,555$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.17 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Emiliana Arango | 3c | 22,001$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.04 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…878dbacked Emiliana Arango | 9c | 10,565$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6262…b5c0backed Emiliana Arango | 2c | 8,728$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…cb1abacked Emiliana Arango | 9c | 8,447$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.35 | 300 | 56.7%170 W · 130 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Emiliana Arango | 7c | 6,912$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.69 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Emiliana Arango | 3c | 5,999$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.97 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Emiliana Arango | 4c | 3,250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 333 | 46.2%154 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Emiliana Arango | 3c | 3,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Emiliana Arango | 1c | 2,773$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Emiliana Arango | 3c | 2,363$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Emiliana Arango | 3c | 2,267$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Emiliana Arango | 3c | 1,648$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 366 | 21.6%79 W · 287 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Emiliana Arango | 3c | 1,637$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Emiliana Arango | 3c | 1,550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 359 | 38.2%137 W · 222 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…fe54backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 1,205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…db30backed Emiliana Arango | 2c | 1,078$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 187 | 24.6%46 W · 141 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Emiliana Arango | 4c | 1,009$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…3d80backed Emiliana Arango | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 39.6%57 W · 87 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Emiliana Arango | 4c | 975.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 18%32 W · 146 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…fe98backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 903.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8101…663ebacked Emiliana Arango | 8c | 882.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 31%27 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Emiliana Arango | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Emiliana Arango | 5c | 763.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Emiliana Arango | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Emiliana Arango | 3c | 610.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…9050backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 603.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Emiliana Arango | 3c | 535.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Emiliana Arango | 9c | 530.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Emiliana Arango | 9c | 364.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…5fb9backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 358.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…c45cbacked Emiliana Arango | 8c | 301.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 288.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…96f4backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 240.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd7…1c4fbacked Emiliana Arango | 8c | 235.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Emiliana Arango | 6c | 226.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Emiliana Arango | 5c | 209.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…46f9backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 204.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Emiliana Arango | 6c | 202$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 195.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…91cbbacked Emiliana Arango | 8c | 182.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…0870backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 180.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…4f00backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 144.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb8…b855backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 133.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…9ff0backed Emiliana Arango | 8c | 128.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emiliana Arangothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Swiatek vs ArangoSwiatek won
- Set 2 Winner: Swiatek vs ArangoSwiatek won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Arango (+1.5)Swiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.