Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04cf75bc77aa2f63027a945b0ddb27b01222ea52e292ecf4fbb9a68863410298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 2c | 785.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 389.25$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.26 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 51c | 389.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.24 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 363$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 315.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 314.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 13c | 285.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.56 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 73c | 282.51$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 272.81$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 213.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 195.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 77c | 172.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 162.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 31c | 156.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 131.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 30c | 124.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 124.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 118.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 16c | 90.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 70.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c7…e947backed No | 76c | 65.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb563…26bfbacked Yes | 78c | 64.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 22c | 61.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 21c | 61.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…3d94backed Yes | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 30c | 52.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 50.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 32c | 47.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 70c | 39.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 78c | 38.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 41c | 36.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 33c | 33.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 67c | 32.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 66c | 24.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 79c | 23.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…1f71backed Yes | 69c | 22.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 66c | 18.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 16.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 77c | 16.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 15.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 67c | 15.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.