Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaacb044f17a2aba3eadd3275b313404c470387c643d53650d73aa5e087516277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 43c | 351.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 27c | 219.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 182.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 69c | 181.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 172.83$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 25c | 167.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 32c | 158.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 153.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 115.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 109.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 66c | 103.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 85.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 25c | 80.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 74.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 36c | 66.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 17c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 22c | 59.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 54.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 53.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked No | 70c | 53.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 47.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 45.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 28c | 44.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 37.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 28.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 58c | 21.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 73c | 19.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.