Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e11fa5ef2fab00577f19354b23b9fe64d3289a8510401c4b4696aa457eb99e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 234.28$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 28c | 227.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 219.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 206.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 204.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 32c | 199.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 177.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 170.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 26c | 165.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 161.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 24c | 149.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 27c | 132.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 115.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 101.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 32c | 97.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 64c | 96.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 93.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 23c | 85.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 65c | 79.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 71c | 78.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 76.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 30c | 75.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 68.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 65.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 71c | 63.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 28c | 63.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 73c | 58.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 22c | 56.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 53.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 63c | 50.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec1…fbccbacked Yes | 34c | 49.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 49.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 49.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 74c | 49.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 74c | 49.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 75c | 48.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 75c | 48.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 27c | 44.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 43c | 44.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 77c | 43.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 24c | 42.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 40.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 37.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed Yes | 44c | 29.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 66c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 71c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 18.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 70c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 67c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed No | 78c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.