Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa616aaf23fb9c1c9d41228cbf5d6147eafeccd6c52d8fed33775de468ffab0f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 40c | 251.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 242.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 30c | 224.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 17c | 198.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 68c | 195.68$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 41c | 190.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 177.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 36c | 165.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 154.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 38c | 133.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 65c | 127.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 116.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 36c | 106.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 27c | 103.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 53c | 103.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 53c | 89.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 56c | 85.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 41c | 82.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 81.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 57c | 75.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 75.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 56c | 71.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 22c | 63.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…4664backed Yes | 22c | 61.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 45c | 61.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 60.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 66c | 58.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 29c | 55.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 54.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 39c | 53.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…2a49backed Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 47.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec1…fbccbacked Yes | 39c | 42.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 28.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 40c | 27.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 55c | 26.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 56c | 25.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 56c | 25.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 45c | 25.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 60c | 25.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8861backed Yes | 61c | 24.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 52c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed No | 79c | 23.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…fa03backed Yes | 54c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 60c | 19.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…b89cbacked Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.