MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e18e49f1ff4af268c559a96c95760d1a399339df56c82c0e5da540f00bd517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 3,186$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.13 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 2,161$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.54 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 1,077$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.62 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 645.13$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.76 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 488.34$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.12 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 226.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Chicago White Sox | 5c | 224$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 212.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.9 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 25c | 190.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Seattle Mariners | 80c | 119.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 111$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a3…23ccbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Seattle Mariners | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 41.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 36.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 32.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 31.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 27.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 26.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 21.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 18.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.