MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x990584d9e7e17545bf2df21db32d10539837fda03b3f0051681f37b69175685e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 65c | 1,357$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 32c | 1,282$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 569.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 333.29$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.2 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 28c | 302.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 290.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 11c | 290.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 60c | 248.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 188.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 61c | 136.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…982dbacked Over | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 79c | 91.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 73c | 62.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 47c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 39c | 46.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 74c | 36.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 73c | 26.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 68c | 24.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 79c | 20.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.