Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Peru Rejects - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f98ebecff10432ad00cd10370716e2bcea639b3ef16e5b6c3849c497e638f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Peru Rejectsof Xtreme Gaming, Peru Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 4,559$2,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.43 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Peru Rejects | 26c | 1,565$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.39 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Peru Rejects | 48c | 1,495$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.37 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Peru Rejects | 24c | 1,030$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.66 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Xtreme Gaming | 18c | 599.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Peru Rejects | 41c | 489.54$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.06 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 355$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Peru Rejects | 43c | 296.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.71 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Peru Rejects | 57c | 177.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 156.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 155$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Peru Rejects | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6f…ab47backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…1211backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Peru Rejects - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Peru Rejects (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Peru Rejects - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.