Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Peru Rejects - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754b52b67aaefb7fa6b46d803db0b454852c1d720249f306187fae73b6d85272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Peru Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 13,225$9,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,066.16 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Peru Rejects | 32c | 6,473$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.77 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Peru Rejects | 31c | 2,758$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.48 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Peru Rejects | 35c | 1,494$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Peru Rejects | 40c | 1,212$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.65 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Peru Rejects | 32c | 1,161$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.02 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Peru Rejects | 32c | 931.5$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.87 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 610.31$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.34 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 501$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.49 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 349.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked Peru Rejects | 57c | 344.63$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.9 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Peru Rejects | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Peru Rejects | 41c | 240.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Peru Rejects | 33c | 238.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Peru Rejects | 9c | 141.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…4279backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 124.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Peru Rejects | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Peru Rejects | 58c | 100.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Peru Rejects | 40c | 83.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Peru Rejects | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…ab87backed Peru Rejects | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Peru Rejects | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Xtreme Gaming | 67c | 44.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d4…b908backed Peru Rejects | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Peru Rejects - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Peru Rejects (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Peru Rejects - Game 1 WinnerPeru Rejects won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.