College Football · resolved market
Spread: BYU (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x051b98490a313d115ce9aff8a344fcd72e19c3ccf28918062bb5e0600491ab64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof BYU, TCU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked TCU | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed TCU | 54c | 14,398$7,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,715.35 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed BYU | 46c | 11,025$5,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,937.49 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked TCU | 53c | 10,191$5,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,401.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed BYU | 47c | 9,840$4,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,215.42 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked BYU | 46c | 5,055$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,729.7 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked BYU | 46c | 3,877$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.59 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked BYU | 48c | 3,231$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.17 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed BYU | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed BYU | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed TCU | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…874abacked TCU | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed TCU | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed BYU | 47c | 1,065$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.36 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed BYU | 46c | 1,064$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.68 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked BYU | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed BYU | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked TCU | 54c | 742$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.68 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked TCU | 53c | 720$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.6 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed BYU | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked BYU | 48c | 562.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1d1dbacked TCU | 56c | 525$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed BYU | 46c | 467.37$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.38 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed BYU | 45c | 451.93$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.93 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed TCU | 54c | 333.05$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed BYU | 46c | 317$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.18 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked BYU | 48c | 308.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…73d8backed BYU | 47c | 210.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed BYU | 46c | 196$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed TCU | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed BYU | 46c | 143.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed BYU | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked BYU | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed BYU | 47c | 100.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed BYU | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed TCU | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed BYU | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked BYU | 46c | 47.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed BYU | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed BYU | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe566…9133backed BYU | 47c | 27.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…d895backed BYU | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BYU (-3.5)this page
- O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: BYU (-4.5)BYU won
- Spread: BYU (-5.5)BYU won
- TCU vs. BYUBYU won
- TCU vs. BYU: O/U 52.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.