Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05265880189ea81200251f5c5cf279819b3630130659ef138d7ab1cb37009b8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,347 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 65c | 691.69$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 334$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 26c | 333.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 270.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 73c | 261.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 207.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 201.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4c…e4b3backed No | 7c | 193.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 191.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 168.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 167.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 21c | 158.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 17c | 144.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 14c | 140.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 15c | 121.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 68c | 120.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 27c | 117.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 117.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 115.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 14c | 106$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 27c | 102.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 98.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 95.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 19c | 90.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes | 34c | 88.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 86.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 24c | 79.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 19c | 76.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 16c | 72.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 79c | 66.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 54.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 77c | 51.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed No | 66c | 50.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 31c | 48.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked No | 41c | 37.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 30c | 36.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 72c | 33.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…b6aebacked No | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 44c | 30.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…06e7backed Yes | 77c | 25.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…d6c5backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…cecebacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 77c | 15.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…5b5fbacked No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.