Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee0ff0ae10aa267fea9b2d75b8e086c1ad096e8e7917f4e02d68caed20231078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,153 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 536.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 75c | 394.09$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 41c | 383.34$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 364.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 334.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 6c | 290.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 272.97$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 256.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 80c | 220.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 220.96$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Yes | 55c | 180.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 41c | 172.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 171.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 142.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 57c | 130.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…5b5fbacked Yes | 20c | 129.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 56c | 119.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 35c | 114.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 22c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 51c | 98.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 41c | 95.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 56c | 94.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 85.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 71c | 73.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 53c | 71.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 17c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 46c | 67.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 66.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 23c | 66.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 49c | 64.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 29c | 64.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 60.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 53.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 47c | 52.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 38c | 52.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked Yes | 52c | 51.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 50.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4752…0a6fbacked No | 54c | 48.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed No | 51c | 45.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 33c | 44.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 46c | 43.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 74c | 43.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 42c | 42.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 37.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 35.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 40c | 35.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 33.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed No | 71c | 33.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 52c | 33.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 45c | 32.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 47c | 31.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 72c | 30.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 49c | 29.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…c7aebacked Yes | 56c | 28.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…eb58backed Yes | 38c | 27.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 24.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcc…bf17backed Yes | 53c | 24.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed Yes | 55c | 21.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 78c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 65c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…4020backed No | 80c | 18.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.