Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11bf94445827852e33d9535a4873f481dffe1183ffeecbe2c00f8ed5ec439978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,371 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 997.71$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.61 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 364$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 39c | 350$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…5b5fbacked Yes | 4c | 323.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 11c | 302.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 260.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 258.51$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 243.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 208.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 193.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 188.62$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 71c | 178.18$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 174.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 169.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 18c | 151.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 149.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 73c | 118.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 25c | 117.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 116.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 25c | 112.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 64c | 107.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 25c | 105.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 29c | 100.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 99.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 95.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed No | 72c | 91.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 90.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 84.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 21c | 78.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 67.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 63.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…eb58backed Yes | 35c | 59.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 51.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 37c | 50.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 23c | 48.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 70c | 43.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 30c | 43.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 35c | 42.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 72c | 39.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 69c | 35.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 69c | 31.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 25.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed No | 70c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 68c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…fd3fbacked No | 79c | 17.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 78cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 15.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 72c | 14.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 80c | 13.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.