Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054150f68b3e3340e0dc28b78ee9f7be43c147dc3ff5b99dcffe8593a7e8262c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 13,010$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.65 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 7,114$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 5,664$4,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.82 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Yes | 21c | 2,810$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,232$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 22c | 2,050$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 79c | 1,714$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.69 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed No | 78c | 1,568$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 21c | 1,429$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 78c | 1,045$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.94 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 27c | 1,033$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.35 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed Yes | 22c | 965.91$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 21c | 871$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 6c | 771.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 79c | 754$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 722$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 24c | 500.54$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 5c | 419.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 22c | 345$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 78c | 270.97$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced3…ce6bbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 78c | 223.79$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 21c | 129.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Yes | 23c | 117.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 21c | 98.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed No | 78c | 97.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 79c | 75.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f4…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…b9e9backed Yes | 24c | 62.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 80c | 47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 79c | 46.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 78c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 79c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-23?this page
- Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-11-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.