NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054d1f8588f6a3e815e300005f5d8c79d1ff05bddab5833db41930e3c7cabc99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Red Wings, Utah
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Utah | 67c | 3,267$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Wings | 33c | 3,267$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 32c | 1,759$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.18 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Utah | 67c | 802.12$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.7 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Utah | 67c | 575.76$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.5 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Red Wings | 33c | 450$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Utah | 71c | 147.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Utah | 70c | 143.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Utah | 68c | 133.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Red Wings | 29c | 120.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Utah | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Utah | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Red Wings | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc53…71f2backed Utah | 70c | 61.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Utah | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Utah | 68c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Utah | 68c | 50.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Red Wings | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Red Wings | 31c | 46.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Utah | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Utah | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Utah | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Utah | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Utah | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Utah | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Utah | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Utah | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Utah | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Utah | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Utah | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Utah | 67c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Utah | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Utah | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Utah | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaf…8beebacked Utah | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Utah | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Utah vs. Red WingsUtah won
- Utah vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Utah vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.