Serie A · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x055e5079614b5ec3997d41af49a948f61da65d3791359fb4419a132fd67fdfec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 30c | 6,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 5,101$3,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.45 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 4,062$3,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.11 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 70c | 2,741$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.4 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 30c | 2,031$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.3 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…5a7cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,664$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 70c | 614.22$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.27 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…1aafbacked Yes | 12c | 567.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 58.8%80 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 323.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…51ffbacked Yes | 10c | 260.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 69c | 248.69$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…10babacked Yes | 10c | 230.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 9c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 12c | 130.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 70c | 99.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 75.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 69c | 74.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1da…bdc2backed No | 71c | 72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 71c | 64.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…a82dbacked Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c1…812fbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 75c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
- Will Udinese Calcio win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.