Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0591fd94ff50e5b72d85cb3d371ce7bad0f840d436b85dc2bca317458968a8c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 349.06$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 224.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 213.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 9c | 197.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 192.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 165.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 161.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…4db5backed Yes | 31c | 160.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 149.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 119.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 91.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 89.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 86.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 73.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 66.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 53c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 64.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 57.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 33c | 48.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 31c | 42.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 38.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 45c | 31.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 31.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 73c | 30.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 59c | 29.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 38c | 27.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 26.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 65c | 23.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 61c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc01…a3b6backed No | 65c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.