TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,317 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c282.39$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes52c260.72$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.624,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c226.73$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.232,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No6c214.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.581,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes66c201.64$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6654043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.114236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No23c197.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.044,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No57c193.5$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.662,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c190.88$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.771,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No59c189.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9121268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes41c179.68$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.681,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No56c176.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No57c175.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.831,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes38c149.62$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No20c126.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.363,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c124.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.343,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No62c105.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2912363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No60c101$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.042,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes60c90$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3615545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No61c89.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5539951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No57c86.62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No26c80.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.592,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes46c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.624539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No58c73.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes38c71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0288628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No59c64.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1517570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes49c64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.461,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes42c62.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.531,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes53c60.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.15455.6%30 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2656…a5b8backed Yes37c56.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.757524%18 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes46c55.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1414638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes44c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5714…ae10backed Yes38c52.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.23944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No56c51.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4812057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes44c50.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0751553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0234934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed Yes42c49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5941258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes41c48.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.792433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes44c48.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No38c46.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7731050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…4fc6backed Yes64c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.648148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No58c46.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes39c44.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3924434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No57c44.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb17…ee85backed Yes41c43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.377739%30 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No61c42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5199571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No64c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes46c40.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5130652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes44c39.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1511729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c38.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.189,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes60c38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0218948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5599…4a71backed Yes58c34.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.68944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c30.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.615,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No68c30.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.77468.9%51 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.853764.9%24 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No57c29.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.214666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c29.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.292,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5544…15c9backed Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No58c26.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7412758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c35…4801backed No56c26.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.873056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked Yes46c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1424951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacb…2103backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…b1b2backed No48c24.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123941%16 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No58c24.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2510…b91bbacked Yes42c24.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.978545.9%39 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No56c23.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.314,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c22.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfc01…a3b6backed No56c22.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.771050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No53c22.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1267336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes66c22.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5930168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No56c20.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6520161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd54…5749backed Yes73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.552934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733b…f7f7backed Yes70c20.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.157847.4%37 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.820852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7243441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.618740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8005…8584backed Yes70c19.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No57c19.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.372,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd5…ebdcbacked No62c19.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126481.3%52 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No55c18.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No62c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1617364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bad…5c9cbacked Yes65c17.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…4edcbacked No61c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.375874.1%43 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No59c16.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No67c16.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.291,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf625…ae8abacked Yes76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.66561.5%40 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+41.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes79c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9410053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.