Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e135027af16fbfe9839917776ebe6bd82809901596958c08f6ba30dc94f5ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 2,112$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 14c | 553.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.82 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 11c | 499.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.07 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 67c | 485.37$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.76 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 264.81$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 71c | 250$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 11c | 239.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.97 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 234.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 195$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…6096backed No | 47c | 159.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 72c | 145.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 139.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 132.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 131.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 15c | 126.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 17c | 111.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 67c | 109.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 10c | 107.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 101.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 100.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 56c | 95.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 74c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 14c | 85.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 81.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 49.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 77c | 48.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 40.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked Yes | 40c | 39.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes | 41c | 30.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 27.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 25.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 62c | 23.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…d898backed No | 67c | 17.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.