Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc109d992ab3524522c907f370b265b55d363582bd32a80947394762ecddc21cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 1c | 1,495$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 1c | 1,045$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 212.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 28c | 178.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 70c | 125.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 125.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 121.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 37c | 99.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 99.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 97.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 85.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 60c | 83.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…c77dbacked Yes | 30c | 79.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 43c | 77.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 39c | 77.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 32c | 69.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 24c | 63.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 25c | 61.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…6096backed No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 35c | 56.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 61c | 55.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 57c | 52.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 38c | 52.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 44c | 51.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 49.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 45c | 48.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 40.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 39.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 36.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 42c | 34.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 32.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 31.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 75c | 22.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 80c | 19.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 67c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 64c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…a4d0backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.