Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9266ed5bae517a1d9e6e1b2cda286966bc44901e0d497bc5507c78bcacba7e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9a6…cbdabacked No | 70c | 373.2$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 364.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 59c | 270.49$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.59 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 63c | 177.18$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 67c | 176.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 64c | 163.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 159.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 69c | 144.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 141.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 137.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 128.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 125.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 38c | 116.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 115.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 111.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 35c | 108$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 68c | 100.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 96.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 53c | 94.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 14c | 93.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…9888backed Yes | 18c | 93.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 87.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 85.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Yes | 70c | 77.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 77c | 74.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 74.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 72.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…a54ebacked Yes | 66c | 71.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 71.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 31c | 70.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 70.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 64.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 61.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 21c | 61.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 57.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 56c | 55.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 49.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 34c | 48.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 49c | 47.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 32c | 44.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…2d52backed Yes | 31c | 42.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes | 32c | 39.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 32c | 37.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 36.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 35.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 34.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 46c | 32.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 61c | 30.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 53c | 27.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…ca53backed Yes | 70c | 22.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…f5debacked Yes | 70c | 20.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 62c | 20.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…728fbacked Yes | 61c | 17.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked No | 76c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 75c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.