NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. HC Sochi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e68bd688bbcbb7631356ae269eace36a027f4032cbd225858703faf7d7d372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Sibir Novosibirsk, HC Sochi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb295…e601backed HC Sochi | 32c | 629.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked HC Sochi | 30c | 499.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 467.67$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.65 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 70c | 320.09$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed HC Sochi | 31c | 116.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf5…7d72backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 69c | 107.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4c…2a53backed HC Sochi | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.37per pick | 45cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed HC Sochi | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 69c | 60.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 70c | 57.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 69c | 56.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 80c | 28.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 177 | 65.5%116 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…b920backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 70c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 69c | 26.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…df60backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 70c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…43cdbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 69c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.