NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals Game 5: Celtics vs. Mavericks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e87b3b35e3fa5079587175b8d8ce7fdc8d777c952e7f4bee7b362bfd4b34ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Mavericks | 29c | 7,073$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.69 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Celtics | 71c | 5,000$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…125fbacked Mavericks | 29c | 3,533$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Celtics | 71c | 3,047$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Celtics | 71c | 2,753$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 1c | 2,709$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Celtics | 71c | 1,420$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.05 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…20cbbacked Mavericks | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1664…7467backed Celtics | 72c | 839.68$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Celtics | 72c | 750$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Celtics | 71c | 633.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebd…1d07backed Mavericks | 29c | 529.76$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Mavericks | 29c | 515.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Celtics | 71c | 345.01$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…cb78backed Mavericks | 29c | 309.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed Celtics | 71c | 304$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Celtics | 71c | 222$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mavericks | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…c0b9backed Mavericks | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…a1e2backed Mavericks | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…d2e0backed Mavericks | 29c | 168.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…896dbacked Celtics | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…35bcbacked Mavericks | 29c | 130.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Celtics | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Mavericks | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…5c96backed Mavericks | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbc…55efbacked Mavericks | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Mavericks | 30c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb138…0acebacked Celtics | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…4c84backed Mavericks | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0824…5d92backed Celtics | 72c | 51.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…110dbacked Mavericks | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Celtics | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Celtics | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…cdbbbacked Celtics | 72c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…2062backed Celtics | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.