MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0612b871721cef908b440a4d89a16b9533f0dc93e6be1c39b4b89bbea93008dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,128 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 2,005$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.05 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 1,306$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.45 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Chicago White Sox | 49c | 1,178$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 990.75$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.23 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 897.74$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.83 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 743.12$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 345.12$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.98 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 313$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 300.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 299.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Chicago Cubs | 8c | 247.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 246.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Chicago White Sox | 49c | 244.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.89 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 242$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 199$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Chicago White Sox | 54c | 182.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 159.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 150.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Chicago Cubs | 18c | 106.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chicago White Sox | 50c | 101.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 91.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 67.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 63.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7f…85c3backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Chicago Cubs | 25c | 60.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb89…ec39backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 51.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 44.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 36.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 26.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 26.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.